Gruber seems to have started a fire storm.
“I’m not arguing that making concept videos directly leads to a lack of traction in the current market. I’m arguing that making concept videos is a sign of a company that has a lack of institutional focus on the present and near-present.”
Daring Fireball: The Type of Companies That Publish Future Concept Videos.
This is all about this video.
Now I’ve nothing against concept videos as such. I wouldn’t put them 20 years out in the future however because who knows what the world will look like. One three years out would really upset the Product Manager but would actually be useful.
However, the biggest problem here is the lack of business case for enormous amounts of this technology.
At 35 seconds there is an electronic taxi window. It looks really, cool. Ignore the fact that this would be a nightmare when there are two people in the cab or how it would work out the geometry for your eyes when the movie studios can’t even do 3D in a cinema.
How would this be paid for? Which taxi driver is going to empty his pockets and give money to Microsoft for this so that they can show where your meeting is tomorrow? What’s the business case for him? I can only see two; people will refuse to ride in taxis without cool windows or adverts.
So let’s rewrite this with a business case. In 20 years, your going to get in a cab and adverts will be projected onto the passing landscape blocking the view and giving a false image of where you’re travelling. Great, thanks.
And the transparent fridge door! How much are you willing to pay to avoid opening the fridge door?200 euros, 400?